"Now and then I think of all the times you screwed me over But had me believin' it was always something that I'd done But I don't wanna live that way Reading into every word you say You said that you could let it go And I wouldn't catch you hung up on somebody that you used to know"
In two weeks, give or take a day or two, the ACC is expecting revenue projections from ESPN and Fox detailing the viability of a merger of the ACC and Pac 12 Networks. The proposed merger isn’t expected to generate enough revenue to compel the ACC to move forward.
What does the ACC do next? How do they quiet the hungry birds chirping for more revenue?
The obvious solution is to expand. Recent media reports suggest the ACC has spoken with Memphis and SMU. I do not doubt the ACC is looking at the markets Memphis and SMU would add to their footprint. But the obvious addition, the addition that makes the most sense for the ACC, is to pursue West Virginia as an expansion candidate.
Why WVU? Why now? The ACC has passed on the Mountaineers twice before. The national media says the Mountaineers don't move the needle for the ACC. They're partly right. The fact the TV markets for West Virginia and Pitt overlap with the Pittsburgh DMA hurts WVU. It's that market duplication that means there’s no value added to the ACCN by WVU.
The math says the Mountaineers would be a revenue neutral addition for the ACC’s ESPN contract. Yet, a look at ESPN’s early season Thursday night schedule provides some insight into why the ACC would covet WVU.
Rivalry games are great TV. And there’s nobody the ACC could add that brings as many rivalry games as the Mountaineers. The Backyard Brawl and the Battle for the Black Diamond Trophy are just the tip of the iceberg. WVU and Syracuse were bitter rivals. How bitter? Don Nehlen once ran up the score against Syracuse. WVU and Louisville was another rivalry that benefited the new Big East. The Hurricanes and Mountaineers played in a few salty games before Miami moved to the ACC.
If the old rivalries weren't enough then WVU has natural rivalries with UVA, Clemson, and NCST just waiting to blossom into classics.
Certainly, the Mountaineers would add attractive TV matchups for both ESPN and the ACCN. And WVU would be a highlight on the home schedules of ACC powers tired of the lack of interest in home games with Duke, Wake Forest and Pitt.
The value is there, but it's always been there. The ACC has always looked down their nose at WVU. What’s different now? Maybe the ACC’s sudden interest in WVU is rooted in the understanding it’s now or never for the ACC and Mountaineers.
The Big 12 is expected to act quickly to raid the Pac 10 if the ACC says no to a network merger. And that almost certainly means the Big 12 extends its grant of rights to entice Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah.
The ACC understands that if WVU agrees to an extension of the Big 12 grant of rights the Mountaineers are off the table. Why should that matter to the ACC?
Maybe the Mountaineers are the key to the ACC's survival?
What’s the ACC without Clemson, FSU, UNC and UVA? It’s a slightly improved version of the old Big East. If, at some point in the future, the SEC raids the ACC, it’s the Mountaineers who might hold the conference together.
If you doubt WVU’s value to the "Big ACC," then review your college football history and the TV ratings from the old Big East. WVU’s ability to deliver a TV audience would be invaluable to an ACC comprised of former Big East programs and SEC - Big Ten undesirables.
If survival is what motivates the ACC’s interest in WVU then it’s a sign of vulnerability and weakness. It’s a sign the ACC believes it needs numbers to survive and the Mountaineers just happen to be the most valuable addition they could make.
And that’s why the Mountaineers need to say no to the ACC.
There’s a faction of Mountaineer fans who have yet to embrace the Big 12. They make no secret they would prefer WVU in the ACC. It’s time for those fans to accept their desire for ACC membership is driven more by the pain of past rejections than the promise of a brighter future.
The ACC, at its very core, is unsustainable in the long term. The conference is divided by a clear caste system separating schools with the need for additional revenue to compete with geographic rivals in the SEC, from those with a proven commitment to football that goes only as far as cashing conference revenue checks.
The fractures within the ACC have reached the point where they are insurmountable. The ACC will fail, it might fail in five years, ten or in 2035, but eventually it will fail. And nothing is proof of its inevitable failure more than the ACC's consideration of unequal revenue sharing.
Unequal revenue sharing doesn't solve problems, it makes them worse.
It’s ironic the issues threatening the ACC are the same issues that led to the breakup of the old Big East? It’s even more ironic the addition of same Mountaineer program the ACC rejected twice maybe the key to the ACC's survival.
The Mountaineers know better. WVU has seen this scenario play out before. They lived it in the Big East. They know how it ends for the ACC.
The Big 12 is just the opposite. The defection of Oklahoma and Texas may have temporarily devalued the Big 12’s broadcast rights, but the remaining members, and the incoming new members, are committed to playing championship quality football whatever the cost. Eventually, the Big 12’s shared goals and brand of exciting football will pay off. Until then the Big 12 can count on its passionate fans to bridge the revenue gap.
As for the long-desired reunion with Pitt and Virginia Tech? It’s more plausible than not - that some point in the near future - Pitt and Virginia Tech are counting on WVU to champion their efforts to join the Big 12.
The Big 12 is WVU’s home. The Big 12 is where WVU belongs and where it's fortunes lie. There’s nothing the ACC can offer the Mountaineers but an uncertain future.
Twice before the ACC has told the Mountaineers they have nothing to offer. This time it's different. This time the Mountaineers will be the one who say thanks but no thanks.
The Mountaineers get the last laugh.
Cue Country Roads.