Published July 20, 2022 | Updated 9:23 p.m.
My bias for WVU is well known. My bias against the ACC is well known. It's that profound bias that makes it difficult for me to assess facts, information, and rumors concerning WVU and the ACC. But accepting my bias means I'm more careful to balance what I want to believe with what I know is logical and reasonable.
My assessment is even more difficult because, being the introvert that I am, I neglected to remain in touch with most of my knowledgeable contacts in college football. In 2011-2012, and 2016, I had relationships with people with real insight into expansion. They could answer questions, provide explanations as to motivations, and offer accurate predictions.
A few of those contacts became friends and I remained in touch with them. Yet 2022 is different. The defections of Texas and Oklahoma blindsided everyone. Behind closed doors reliable sources touted Oklahoma and Texas as committed to the Big 12. The people that I know were confident Texas and Oklahoma were happy and freely shared that information. They were embarrassed when the Longhorns and Sooners betrayed the Big 12. Now, given the instability in college football, otherwise reliable contacts are reluctant to share information.
It's still possible to get a clue tossed your way. You need a solid lead that allows you to piece together relevant facts using logic and reason. If you hit the mark you can use that information to open doors.
Down the rabbit hole I went. Used everything I’ve learned about expansion and the economics of college football, combined that with what I could intuit about the state of the ACC and went fishing.
Sometimes, if you go fishing and have the patience to cast about looking for strikes, you'll catch something. I went fishing for information and got lucky. I caught something.
The ACC is desperate to add revenue to appease their tent-pole programs and prevent schemes to get out of the conference grant of rights.
The ACC’s "Plan A" was Notre Dame. Revenue would no longer be a problem iIf the Irish would cast their lot with the ACC. The Irish, true to their reputation, used the obvious interest from the Big Ten and the ACC's desperation to extort NBC for new contract paying $75 million per year - an amount sufficient for Notre Dame to remain independent.
"Plan B" was the proposed merger of the ACCN and the Pac 12's conference network. The revenue generated by such a merger is expected to be insufficient to meet the ACC's needs
The ACC's "Plan C" was to expand. Expansion would trigger the automatic look-in clause in their contract with ESPN. Theoretically this would allow the ACC to renegotiate terms and increase their baseline compensation.
Contacts I’ve maintained at ESPN, who have no connection to WVU or WV, tell me the ACC is seriously considering expansion. Specifically, the ACC is looking at four programs: West Virginia, Cincinnati, SMU and Memphis and what combination would add the most revenue. Adding Pac 12 schools is possible, but not likely to happen.
Three of programs considered expand the ACC’s footprint. Cincinnati, SMU and Memphis would bring with them large TV markets. But the actual value they add is TBD. Their value is dependent on the carriage fee ESPN could charge for ACCN. Normally, carriage fees are much higher in regions within a conference’s footprint and much lower elsewhere. But carriage fees are negotiated separately with each cable company for the region they serve.
Unfortunately, the Mountaineers primary designated market area (DMA) is Pittsburgh. Sharing a DMA with Pitt, combined with West Virginia’s sparse population, translates into marginal value to the ACCN.
Where is WVU’s value then? Brand equity certainly. Navigate Research ranked the Mountaineers #7 in the nation in terms of brand value. The Mountaineers deliver solid TV ratings year in and year out.
In WVU’s seven appearances on ABC from 2021 to 2017 the Mountaineers averaged a TV rating of 1.8 with an average viewership of 2.9 million. In the same time frame WVU has appeared in 13 national broadcasts on ESPN. The Mountaineers averaged a TV rating of 1.3 with an average 2.2 million viewers.
Over the years the Mountaineers have delivered the goods for ESPN. In 2022 ESPN selected WVU for the national spotlight twice in the first four games of the season. The Mountaineers open the season with the Backyard Brawl against Pitt on September 1, 2022. Three weeks later WVU plays Virginia Tech in Blacksburg in the Battle for the Black Diamond Trophy.
It would surprise many that WVU, despite a 6-7 season, was 24th in the nation in TV ratings after ratings are adjusted for network and time slot. Mountaineers achieved that ranking despite having only 9 rated games. WVU averaged 1.02 million viewers in last season’s 9 rated games – remarkable numbers considering 4 games were on FS1 and 1 on ESPNU.
ESPN knows WVU’s value. Is it enough for the ACC?
Potentially, based on market size alone, the ACC’s most lucrative move would be to add Cincinnati and SMU. But that's not the whole story.
Cincinnati and SMU are not market leaders in their home DMA or state. Each faces stiff competition from one or more elite college football programs and pro sports. Their share of the market is fractional and their value to the ACCN would reflect their place in the food chain.
Another factor that is likely to inhibit ACC revenues is cord cutting. Cable companies are shedding subscribers at an alarming rate. And the number one reason customers cancel cable subscriptions is price.
Providers within the newly expanded footprint are likely to resist a price increase. Cincinnati, Memphis, and SMU do not dominate their markets. The Big Ten and SEC are, by far and away, the market leaders. Certainly (eventually) the cost of ACCN within Ohio, Tennessee and Texas would increase, but the amount of increase would be less because of the market share of Cincinnati, Memphis, and SMU.
For example, In Clemson, SC the average cable TV subscriber pays a premium, $0.70 a month for the ACCN, or $8.40 a year. But in Cincinnati, Ohio the market is dominated by Ohio State, not the University of Cincinnati. ESPN would negotiate with each cable company serving the region. Ohio State’s dominance of the market may cut the carriage fee for ACCN in half – from $0.70 to $0.35 or less.
The Cable companies assume market share equals demand. They must pay in-market rates for the ACCN, but they could, and often do, choose not to offer ACCN to their customers if they can't agree on a price.
WVU, despite its recent woes, is the market leader in WV and a national brand. The Mountaineers deliver solid, dependable TV ratings and offer attractive TV match-ups, despite adding marginal value to the ACCN.
The Mountaineer brand isn’t the only reason the ACC is looking at WVU. The Mountaineers have strong support in the ACC. Clemson, Virginia Tech and Pitt are advocates for WVU’s admission. Clemson’s support is especially important as the Tigers have more clout than anyone in the ACC.
It’s understandable why WVU’s old Big East conference mates would support the Mountaineers. But why Clemson? The answer is Jim Clements. Clements came to Clemson from West Virginia University. His children are graduates of WVU. He’s close friends with WVU’s president E. Gordon Gee.
If you doubt Clements's support of WVU consider he was the president at WVU when the ACC rejected the Mountaineers in 2011. He fought back against the academic argument used against WVU and implemented policies at Mountaineer Field that reformed the reputation of WVU’s fans Clements has been a staunch advocate of WVU from the first day he assumed the presidency at Clemson. And he expressed his intent when said goodbye to the people of WV. Clements wrote "I will always look out for WVU, now and in the future."
It may not be enough for Jim Clements and Clemson working behind the scenes for WVU. Clemson has clout enough to subdue protests from UNC about the Mountaineers, but his influence ends in the ACC boardroom.
The ACC's actions depend on ESPN's valuations. In about a week the ACC will receive ESPN’s revenue projections for a potential ACCN – Pac 12 Network merger. The revenue projections for that merger are expected to underwhelm.
The ACC’s only option at that point is expansion. Who they pick isn’t up to Clemson, it’s certainly not up to UNC, Duke or any ACC elitist who has blackballed WVU in the past. That decision, who the ACC adds or doesn't add, will be made by ESPN.
My friend at ESPN believes that WVU – Cincinnati are the most likely targets for ACC expansion. Adding those programs acheives two goals,adding a large new market plus the benefit of adding a storied program with longstanding rivalries with Pitt, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, and Miami. His bottom line... adding WVU and Cincinnati upgrades the football product and expands the ACCN footprint.
ESPN’s final recommendation to the ACC is due in about a week. The best overall value is WVU and Cincinnati. If ESPN’s goal is to increase the footprint for for the ACCN they target Cincinnati and SMU.
As a Mountaineer fan I’m conflicted about WVU’s potential exit from the Big 12. I’ve written about that before. I don’t need to rehash it again. (See WVU Should Just Say No)
I can’t predict what ESPN will recommend. I’ve researched expansion and valuation since 2010. Expansion has always been driven by expanding the conference footprint to add revenue for carriage fees. Yet, I understand the value WVU would add to the ACC despite the Mountaineers lack of impact on ACCN revenues.
A friend who covers the ACC offered some advice. He wrote “If ESPN wants WVU in the ACC, then WVU will be in the ACC.”
And that’s the best answer I can provide without letting my affection for the Mountaineers interfere with my judgment.
The ACC and WVU are just pawns to ESPN.